Earthquake evacuation choice and management in a developing archipelagic country—a case study of Surigao city, Philippines

Abstract

The Philippines is a developing archipelagic country in Southeast Asia. The country is susceptible to multiple natural disasters, specifically earthquakes. This implies the significance of understanding earthquake evacuation choice in order to design effective planning and management of evacuation to minimize chaos, damage cost, and the loss of lives. This study investigated the determinants of earthquake evacuation and proposed earthquake evacuation planning and management in the Philippines, featuring the case study of Surigao City. The study used the primary dataset of 1055 observations gathered in 2019 and applied the nested logit model (NLM) to investigate the potential factors of earthquake evacuation decisions. We considered three output variables: evacuation choice, evacuation duration, and travel mode choice. We found that residents were more likely to evacuate their homes upon receiving an earthquake warning and move to a public shelter or open space. Additionally, respondents were more inclined to leave their homes when their houses suffered from moderate to severe/complete damage or when electricity and water supply were cut-off. Respondents were most likely to walk to evacuation centers as the majority of residents initially moved to the nearest open space immediately after an earthquake and stayed in an open space for less than 6 hours. No correlation was found between personal and household income factors with evacuation choice and travel mode choice. Furthermore, the study used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine areas suitable for earthquake evacuation using insights from local government officials and planners. The areas identified for earthquake evacuation were developed to support evacuation planning and management.