Determinants of Intra-City Residential Migration Patterns of Older Adults: A GIS and Decision Tree Analysis of Yancheng City, China

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial patterns of residential migration among older adults in the city center of Yancheng and the influencing factors using data on the home purchases of individuals aged 65 and older from 2016 to 2018, along with peripheral point of interest (POI) data, analyzed with ArcGIS and a decision tree model. The results indicated that persons aged 60–65 accounted for 42.8% of the total sample and primarily chose to migrate in the early stages of retirement. The intra-city migration of older adults exhibits both centripetal and centrifugal patterns, with a greater tendency toward the city center. House prices, floor levels, and commercial facilities significantly impact their choice of migration destinations. Among these, house prices were the most critical determinant, with the majority of older adults migrating to neighborhoods with lower house prices. This study contributes by integrating residential migration and location choice research and constructing an analytical framework based on facility accessibility. The findings provide insights into the key determinants of location choice for intra-city residential migration among older adults and the construction of livable neighborhoods for them.