A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Ag-riculture in Dosso and Maradi Regions of Niger Republic

Abstract

The impact of climate variability on Maradi and Dosso agriculture was estimated taking into account farmer adaptations. The study used a Ricardian analysis of 200 farms to explore the effects of climate variability on net revenue. It also simulates the impact of different climate scenarios on agriculture incomes. This analysis bespeaks that if temperature increases 1˚C annually, the annual crop net revenues for both frameworks will decrease up to 582170.7 FCFA2 for model without adaptation (M1) and up to 1316 FCFA for model with adaptation (M2). An increase of Precipitation of 1 mm/month will increase crop receipts for the frameworks up to 721,917 FCFA for M1 and 1,861,455 FCFA for M2. In order to predict climate change impacts for these regions, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of IPCC scenarios were examined. The crop net receipts will fall between 10% and 26% if the scenarios happen.