Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom

Abstract

Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and CPS 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to completed fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on fertility. This finding contributes to the unraveling of the determinants of the post WWII baby boom. Specifically, the difference in economic uncertainty endured by women born in 1910 compared to that faced by women born in 1935 accounts for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation across these cohorts. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by marrying later, postponing fertility, and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. JEL Classification Codes: J11, J13, E32, N30