Are we gaining or losing ground? Dynamic perceptions of public opinion influence willingness to speak out and participate in land use conflicts

Abstract

Using an Italian land use conflict on the building a high-speed railway (HSR) as case study, we analyzed how perceived changes in public opinion influence (a) people’s willingness to speak out, and (b) subsequently their intentions to engage in action (N = 311). Regardless of whether they were on the majority or minority side of the conflict, citizens’ willingness to speak out was positively associated with their perceptions that their position was becoming more or less widespread within public opinion, especially among participants with extreme attitudes toward the HSR. Willingness to speak out about the HSR mediated the relation between increasing support discrepancy and intention to participate in the conflict. Strengths, limitations and implications are discussed.