Reliability and predictive validity of contingent values: Does the nature of the good matter?

Abstract

Because the contingent valuation mechanism (CVM) elicits verbal reports of maximum willingness to pay and not actual willingness to pay, analysts have expressed doubts about the reliability and validity of contingent values for commodities such as environmental amenities. This skepticism is usually attributed to the amorphous nature of the commodity and to peoples' lack of familiarity or experience. However, our comparison of two commodities, which lie at polar extremes of the private good/public good continuum, suggests that the nature of the good may have little influence on the reliability and predictive validity of the CVM. Instead, aspects of the CVM itself (e.g., explicit payment obligation) may be more important for high intention-behavior consistency. © 1990.