Climate Suitability for Paddy in Sukabumi Regency by 2032 Using RCP 4.5 Scenario

Abstract

Climate is the crucial determining component in defining the land suitability class for paddy. The paddy suitability class is expected to decrease as a result of global climate change. This study analyzed land suitability for paddy based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate projection scenario of Sukabumi Regency in 2020 and 2032 using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) 5. The parameters analyzed were precipitation (pr), and near-surface air temperature (tas). The global data was adjusted to local conditions using a bias factor calculated using observed climate data from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency Station in Bandung. Based on the results of this study, climate (precipitation and temperature) projections for Sukabumi Regency in 2020 and 2032 are classified as highly suitable (S1) for paddy cultivation. The result of this study indicates that there would be no change in the climate suitability class for paddy cultivation in Sukabumi Regency between 2020 to 2032. However, the results of this study also identified a significant numerical decline in precipitation. Therefore, we recommend necessary climate change mitigation and adaptation programs to reduce the future risk of decreasing rice production due to crop failure.