Global economic effects of war-induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine

Abstract

The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardized the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of war-induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine, given the inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare losses ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.