Temperature amplification and marine heatwave alteration in shallow coastal bays

Abstract

Shallow coastal ecosystems are threatened by marine heatwaves, but few long-term records exist to quantify these heatwaves. Here, 40-year records of measured water temperature were constructed for a site in a system of shallow bays with documented heatwave impacts and a nearby ocean site; available gridded sea-surface temperature datasets in the region were also examined. Water temperatures at both sites increased significantly though bay temperatures were consistently 3-4°C hotter in summer and colder in winter and were more variable overall, differences not captured in high-resolution gridded sea-surface temperature datasets. There was considerable overlap in heatwave events at the coastal bay and ocean sites. Annual heatwave exposure was similar and significantly increased at both sites while annual heatwave intensity was significantly higher at the bay site owing to the high variance of the daily temperature anomaly there. Event frequency at both sites increased at a rate of about 1 event/decade. Future simulations indicate all heatwave metrics increase, as do days above 28°C, a heat stress threshold for seagrass. Ocean temperatures on the U.S. mid-Atlantic margin have rarely exceeded this threshold, while summer bay temperatures commonly do, allowing ocean exchange with coastal bays to provide thermal relief to bay ecosystems. This will have changed by 2100, creating a thermal environment that threatens seagrass communities in these systems. Documenting such change requires development of long-term water temperature records in more shallow coastal systems.