The impact of climate change on the wave energy resource potential of the Atlantic Coast of Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the wave energy potential along the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula, a region acknowledged for its high wave energy resource. The research focuses on the annual and intra-annual variations in wave power for the high-emission RCP8.5 global warming scenario over different time frames: historical, near-future, and far-future. The results show a decreasing trend in the wave energy resource throughout the study area, with the most notable reductions observed in the northwestern region. The reduction in maximum annual power ranges from 15.1 to 7.2 kW/m. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean surface temperature gradients induced by climate change effects could explain these results. This study also discusses the impacts of wave power projections on the design of wave energy converters and their future operation. The outcomes are of high interest to adapt the renewable energy infrastructure to a changing climate, ultimately also aiding in the strategic planning and cost-effective design of future wave energy projects.