Trend analysis of extreme precipitation indices in the southern part of Java

Abstract

Global warming causes changing on climate system which driving extreme climate and metrological event. The occurrence of extreme event, such as extreme precipitation can lead to flooding and drought which can have an impact on agriculture production. To observe the extreme event, Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) developed 27 extreme indices which are 11 extreme precipitation indices and 16 extreme temperature indices. In this study, we analyze the trend of extreme precipitation indices to understand the changing of precipitation in Southern part of Java. Extreme precipitation indices were analyzed using Climpact2. Trend significance of extreme indices time series were calculated using non-parametric Mann-Kendall Test. Spatial distribution of the annual trend in each index illustrated using IDW interpolation. Most of significant trend in extreme precipitation indices occurred in North West station of study area. Negative significant trend only happened on consecutive wet days (CWD) index that means wet days was decrease. Positive significant trend happened in every index exclude consecutive dry days (CDD), Number of heavy precipitation days number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), and PRCPTOT. Precipitation in study area occur with high intensity in short period.