A Web-based tool for personalized prediction of long-term disease course in patients with multiple sclerosis

Abstract

Background and purpose: The Evidence-Based Decision Support Tool in Multiple Sclerosis (EBDiMS) is the first Web-based prognostic calculator in multiple sclerosis (MS) capable of delivering individualized estimates of disease progression. It has recently been extended to provide long-term predictions based on the data from a large natural history cohort. Methods: We compared the predictive accuracy and consistency of EBDiMS with that of 17 neurologists highly specialized in MS. Results: We show that whilst the predictive accuracy was similar, neurologists showed a significant intra-rater and inter-rater variability. Conclusions: Because EBDiMS was consistent, it is of superior utility in a specialist setting. Further field testing of EBDiMS in non-specialist settings, and investigation of its usefulness for counselling patients in treatment decisions, is warranted. © 2012 The Author(s).