Optimal dengue vaccination strategies of seropositive individuals

Abstract

The dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia), has been licensed in 20 countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia beginning in 2015. In April 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) advised that CYD-TDV should only be administered to individuals with a history of previous dengue virus infection. Using literature-based parameters, a mathematical model of dengue transmission and vaccination was developed to determine the optimal vaccination strategy while considering the effect of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). We computed the optimal vaccination rates under various vaccination costs and serological profiles. We observe that the optimal dengue vaccination rates for seropositive individuals are highest at the initial phase of a vaccination program, requiring intense effort at the early phase of an epidemic. The model shows that even in the presence of ADE, vaccination could reduce dengue incidence and provide population benefits. Specifically, optimal vaccination rates increase with a higher proportion of monotypic seropositive individuals, resulting in a higher impact of vaccination. Even in the presence of ADE and with limited vaccine efficacy, our work provides a population-level perspective on the potential merits of dengue vaccination.