Estimation of the influence of the seasonality factor in the strategic activity of tourism and hospitality enterprises

Abstract

Seasonality in the modern interpretation is presented in the form of dynamic oscillatory processes that determine the periods of growth and decline of various kinds of economic phenomena and processes. Among all industries, tourism and hospitality are most clearly affected by the seasonality factor, since it directly depends on periodic changes in climatic conditions during the calendar year. The tour operator, as an active participant in the tourism market and the main producer of tourist products, must take into account the fact that the possibilities of production and consumption within certain tourist destinations are limited by seasonal climatic conditions. This study offers a methodology that is based on the Holt-Winter method, which takes into account the seasonality factor in calculating forecast values. A methodology for calculating forecast values using the MS Excel tool was also developed. The proposed methodology is very simple to implement in practice, which will allow all organizations, when building forecast data, to easily access and use large volumes of data.