Analysis of Changes in Land Use Patterns for Erosion and Sediment Prediction

Abstract

The Amprong watershed has an area of ± 252.94 km². The increasing population causes the demand for land to increase. GIS analyzes changes with the factors of change that occur. The purpose of the study was to determine the pattern of land-use change in the Amprong watershed on erosion and sedimentation. Idrisi Selva for use change analysis and SWAT for erosion and sediment. From the results of land cover modeling, it can be seen that the trend of forest land cover change from 2008, 2013, and 2018 continued to decline with an average of 11.69% of land cover in 2008. In contrast to settlements, it always increased by an average of 9.29%. Meanwhile, land cover changes in 2018 and 2028 decreased by 21.40%, plantations decreased by 4.33%, open land decreased by 42.11%, settlements increased by 46.47%, rice fields increased by 0.60%, and shrubs increased by 4.63%. The Kappa Index of Agreement validation shows a K standard value of 0.85 which means that the modeling is scientifically accepted. The results of hydrological modeling in 2018 were 1,021,237.49 tons/ha/year, erosion was 752,973.95 tons/ha/year and in 2028 it was 1,886,689.64 tons/ha/year, erosion was 1,069,631.09 tons/year