Quick learn approach for load forecasting during COVID 19 lockdown

Abstract

Load forecasting is extremely important for day to day operations and trading of any distribution utility. In recent times due to pandemic situation, the imposition of lockdown has caused all the commercial and industrial activities to shutdown. This has profoundly impacted the entire nation's electrical demand consumption. The consumption levels as well as the profiles have changed drastically. This has affected the forecast accuracy of the utilities exposing them to financial and technical risks. This paper presents and analyses the impact of COVID 19 on load consumption of a urban distribution utility. It also proposes a new forecasting model called 'Quick Learn Approach' (QLA) developed specifically for such lockdown period. Its main aim is to quickly learn and adapt to the constantly changing load consumption pattern while giving fairly accurate forecasts. The performance of the QLA model is compared with several other standard forecasting models so as to ensure its effectiveness.