Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Urban Multi-Energy Systems: A Review of the State of the Art and Future Challenges

Abstract

Urban multi-energy systems (UMESs) are integrated energy systems (IESs) which can alleviate the current energy crisis, improve energy utilization and realize multi-energy complementarity of modern. Various subsystems involved in the coupling of UMESs, including power grids, gas pipeline networks, cold/heat networks, transportation networks, and energy cyber-physical system, exhibit coupling characteristics such as multi-energy source modeling, complex uncertainty factor modeling, mutual influence of information and physical coupling. At present, the modeling and reliability assessments of UMESs are the most urgent tasks. In this paper, the latest research results on the reliability modeling and evaluation of UMESs are analyzed by considering their coupling components. In addition, the reliability modeling methods and the evaluation indexes of UMESs, including power-gas systems, power-thermal systems, power-traffic systems, and energy cyber-physical systems, are presented in this paper, with specific UMES modeling methods divided into model-driven modeling and data-driven modeling. Finally, future challenges for the reliability modeling and evaluation of UMESs are proposed, such as the dispatch strategy of the coupling components needs to be developed and continuously optimized to improve the reliability of UMESs, and the resilience of UMESs under the extreme scenarios needs to be further studied.