Real-time dynamic carbon content prediction model for second blowing stage in bof based on cbr and lstm

Abstract

The endpoint carbon content is an important target of converters. The precise prediction of carbon content is the key to endpoint control in converter steelmaking. In this study, a real-time dynamic prediction of the carbon content model for the second-blowing stage of the converter steelmaking process was proposed. First, a case-based reasoning (CBR) algorithm was used to retrieve similar historical cases and their corresponding process parameters in the second blowing stage, based on the process parameters of the new case in the main blowing stage. Next, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was trained by using process parameters of similar cases from the previous moment as the input and the carbon content for the next moment as the output. Finally, the process parameters of the new case were input into the trained LSTM model to produce a real-time dynamic prediction of the carbon content in the second blowing stage. Actual production data were used for the verification, and the results showed that the prediction errors of the proposed model within the ranges of (−0.005, 0.005), (−0.010, 0.010), (−0.015, 0.015) and (−0.020, 0.020) were 25%, 54%, 71%, and 91% respectively, which were higher than the prediction accuracies of the traditional carbon integral model, cubic model, and exponential model.