IMPLEMENTASI PAKET SHINY PADA PEMODELAN MULTISCALE AUTOREGRESSIVE UNTUK DATA HARGA SAHAM BBRI

Abstract

Stocks are an investment that attract people because they can earn large profits by having claim rights to the company's income and assets so investors have to observe stock price movements in the future to achieve investment goals. One of the statistical methods for time series data modeling is ARIMA. However, modeling assumptions must be fulfilled to use that method so an alternative model is proposed, namely nonparametric regression model, which has no modeling assumptions requirement. In this study, the nonparametric regression multiscale autoregressive (MAR) with two different filter and decomposition level J are compared to choose the best model and forecast it. The data are closing stock price, high stock price and low stock price of BBRI’s stocks that divided into 2 parts, namely in sample data from March 19, 2020 to February 4, 2021 to form a model and out sample data from February 5, 2021 to March 23, 2021 used for evaluation of model performance based on MAPE values. The chosen best model for each stock price are the MAR model with  wavelet haar filter and decomposition level 5 for the closing stock price which produces a MAPE value of 1.194%, the MAR model with wavelet haar filter and decomposition level 5 for the high stock price which produces a MAPE value of 1.283%, and the MAR model with a wavelet haar filter and decomposition level 5 for the low stock price which produces a MAPE value of 1.141%, indicating that the models have excellent forecasting capability. In this study, Graphical User Interface (GUI) using R software with the help of shiny package is also built, making data analyzing easier and generating more interactive display output.