Projections of standardised energy indices in future climate scenarios

Abstract

Renewable energy is becoming an increasingly important component of energy systems. However, renewable energy production is heavily dependent on the prevailing weather conditions, which are changing as a result of climate change. It is therefore necessary to build energy systems that are robust to energy shortages caused by weather-dependent changes to energy demand and renewable energy production. To design such systems, we must monitor how changes in the climate are expected to influence future energy production and demand; this is important for policymakers to decide when, where, and by how much renewable energy installed capacities should be increased, for example. In this paper, we study the behaviour of standardised energy indices in future European climate projections, and use this to monitor how characteristics of energy production droughts in Europe are expected to change in the future. We use these results to make suggestions regarding how the energy mix should be adapted in the future to decrease the risk of energy production droughts.