The National Weather Service hurricane probability program.

Abstract

The National Weather Service hurricane watch and warning programs, which attempt to minimize over-warning, remain adequate for the majority of the coastal residents, but do not supply adequate lead times for many coastal communities. Furthermore, these watches and warnings are qualitative in nature where a need has been expressed for quantitative assessments of risk. With these factors in mind, the National Weather Service initiated a program using probabilities to quantitatively assess the uncertainties in the forecast tracks of hurricanes. -from Author