Methodology for the "Gross" Aggregate Estimation of Tax Revenues

Abstract

The objective of this research is to provide the fiscal-tax estimates subareas of the public finance area with a “rough estimation methodology” taking advantage of the historical statistics of income. Through the case method, the analysis and discussion of experiences and fiscal situations in Mexico City is carried out. As a result, the methodology is obtained, supported by the polynomial arrangement for tabular collection functions by Newton's interpolation with divided differences. The use of the methodology for the projection and analysis of fiscal-tax revenues in “entities” with financial self-sufficiency is recommended. The main limitation for the application of the methodology is that the tax collection is centralized and there is no financial self-sufficiency in various “entities”. This research is original since it provides a work methodology to the fiscal estimates area of public finances. It is concluded that it is feasible to use the proposed methodology to make estimates of fiscal-tax revenues, considering as data the historical statistics of such, which has internalized the effects of the economic variables.