QAnon: The Calm Before the Storm

Abstract

QAnon, a group of conspiracy theorists dedicated to the overthrow of the deep state and the facilitation of the rapture, has been growing in strength and prominence since its inception in 2017. Originally started as an anonymous post on a message board, the collective has increased in membership, geographic footprint, and ideological reach. QAnon initiates have also expanded their repertoire of tactics, evolving from online chatter to rallies and, finally, to violent attacks, leading law enforcement to opine that the group may incite incidents of domestic terrorism. Although this outcome is possible, predictions of this kind have less merit unless supported by systematic analysis of the evidence. This essay attempts to address this need by providing an empirically grounded prediction of the future of QAnon. Specifically, it summarizes the results of comparative case analyses, which consists of examining groups and collectives that are comparable to QAnon on key factors and applying their trajectories to QAnon. Case comparisons indicate that QAnon may continue to grow in membership size and regional presence. In addition, QAnon members may persist in their use of violence, leading to an increase in the number and severity of their attacks.