Disentangling Temporal Trends of Clade Ib Monkeypox Virus Transmission in Burundi

Abstract

Utilizing mpox case data from Burundi between August 2024 and April 2025, we calibrated a mathematical model to quantify the temporal trends of clade Ib monkeypox virus transmission. The model outputs indicated a declining overall transmission trend. Children aged 0–4 and 5–9 years were estimated to be at higher risk of infection compared to older age groups, while sexual contact was inferred to contribute up to 50% of the overall transmission.