Reaching 80% human papillomavirus vaccination prevalence by 2026: How many adolescents need to be vaccinated and what are their characteristics?

Abstract

Background: Human papillomavirus vaccination (HPVV) prevents several types of cancer. The American Cancer Society recently established a goal that by 2026, 80% of adolescents will be up to date (UTD) before their 13th birthday. However, the number in need of vaccination to reach this goal is unknown. This study estimated the number of additional adolescents (11-12 years old) who need HPVV for 80% prevalence to be reached by 2026. Methods: The study used de-identified and publicly available data and exempt from institutional review board approval and informed consent. The 2016 National Immunization Survey for Teens was used to estimate the baseline HPVV prevalence. Linear growth to 80% HPVV prevalence by 2026 was applied to set intermediate targets. US Census Bureau data were used for population projections. This study estimated the cumulative number of additional adolescents 11 to 12 years old who would need to become UTD (ie, receive 2 doses) by first subtracting the number who would need to be vaccinated to achieve an intermediate target prevalence from the estimated number currently compliant and then summing these numbers between 2018 and 2026. Results: Nationwide, an additional 7.62 million males (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.78 million to 8.40 million) and an additional 6.77 million females (95% CI, 5.95 million to 7.55 million), aged 11 to 12 years, would need to receive 2 doses of the vaccine between 2018 and 2026 for 80% prevalence to be achieved. Most adolescents not UTD (80%) also needed to initiate vaccination, and more than 90% recently visited a health care provider. Conclusions: It is estimated that at least 14.39 million additional adolescents aged 11 to 12 years in the United States will need to receive 2 doses of HPVV for a UTD HPVV prevalence of 80% to be achieved by 2026. To reach this goal, improvements in facilitators of HPVV initiation, including physician recommendations and parental acceptability, are needed.