Changes in the prevalence of intellectual disability among 10-year-old children in Sweden during 2011 through 2021: a total population study

Abstract

Background: Recent studies have suggested an increasing prevalence of intellectual disability diagnoses in some countries. Our aim was to describe the trend in the prevalence of intellectual disability diagnoses in Sweden and explore whether associated sociodemographic and perinatal factors can explain changes in the prevalence. Methods: We used a register-based nationwide cohort of residents in Sweden born between 2001 and 2011. We calculated the prevalence of intellectual disability diagnoses by age 10 for each birth cohort and the prevalence ratios in relation to the baseline year 2011, overall and by severity of intellectual disability, and comorbidity of autism and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. The prevalence ratios were stratified and adjusted for associated sociodemographic and perinatal factors. Results: Among 1,096,800 individuals, 8,577 were diagnosed with intellectual disability by age 10. Among these, 3,949 (46%) and 2,768 (32%) were also diagnosed with autism and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, respectively, and 4% were diagnosed with profound, 8% severe, 20% moderate, 52% mild, and 16% other/unspecific intellectual disability. The recorded age-10 prevalence of intellectual disability diagnoses increased from 0.64% (95% confidence interval 0.59–0.69%) in 2011 to 1.00% (0.94–1.06%) in 2021, corresponding to an annual prevalence ratio of 1.04 (1.04–1.05). The increase was, however, restricted to mild, moderate, and other/unspecific intellectual disability diagnoses, while the trends for profound and severe intellectual disability diagnoses were stable. The increasing trend was perhaps less pronounced among females and children with diagnosed attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, but independent of the co-occurrence of autism. The prevalence ratios did not change with stratification or adjustment for other associated demographic and perinatal factors. Conclusion: The recorded prevalence of diagnosed mild and moderate intellectual disability among 10-year-olds in Sweden has increased over the recent decade. This increase could not be explained by changes in associated sociodemographic or perinatal factors, including birth weight, gestational age, and parental age, migration status, and education at the child’s birth. The increase instead may be due to changes in diagnostic practices in Sweden over time.