Regional climate change over South Asia

Abstract

To enable a high-resolution representation at regional and local levels over South Asia, a regional climate model (RCM) with a high-resolution grid and good representation of features such as coastlines and mountains is used to generate 17 climate simulations. For Bangladesh, the results show increasing surface air temperature over the region from the present day (defined as 1981–2000) between 1.5 and 2.7 °C by the 2050s to between 2.6 and 4.7 °C by the 2090s. Precipitation is also projected to increase in the majority of simulations by mid-century (with a range of −1.4 to around +13 per cent) and a clearer consistent signal of increase by the 2090s (+8 to +28 per cent). Assessment of changing rainfall extremes indicates a decrease in light rainfall events, but an increase in heavier events.