Numerical prediction of time series based on FCMs with information granules

Abstract

The prediction of time series has been widely applied to many fields such as enrollments, stocks, weather and so on. In this paper, a new prediction method based on fuzzy cognitive map with information granules is proposed, in which fuzzy cmeans clustering algorithm is used to automatically abstract information granules and transform the original time series into granular time series, and subsequently fuzzy cognitive map is used to describe these granular time series and perform prediction. two benchmark time series are used to validate feasibility and effectiveness of proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed prediction method can reach better prediction accuracy. Additionally, the proposed method is also able to precess the modeling and prediction of large-scale time series. © 2006-2014 by CCC Publications.