A modelling assessment of the impact of control measures on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in Great Britain

Abstract

Since 2020, large-scale outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in Great Britain have resulted in substantial poultry mortality and economic losses. Alongside the costs, the risk of circulation leading to a viral reassortment that causes zoonotic spillover raises additional concerns. However, the precise mechanisms driving transmission between poultry premises and the impact of potential control measures in Great Britain, such as vaccination, are not fully understood. We have developed a spatial transmission model for the spread of HPAI in poultry premises calibrated to infected premises data for the 2022-23 season using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our results indicate that reducing the susceptibility of the premises surrounding an identified infected premises (for example, through enhanced biosecurity measures and/or vaccination) can substantially reduce the overall number of infected premises. Our findings highlight that enhanced control measures could limit the future impact of HPAI on the poultry industry and reduce the risk of broader health threats. Great Britain over the course of an epidemic season. We then simulate reactive enhanced control strategies that reduce susceptibility of poultry to show that there is a large benefit in localised interventions around an infected poultry premises to reduce further transmission. These results underscore the need for effective control strategies to limit the continued circulation of avian influenza and the threat to public health.