Extreme Marine Heatwaves in the Southern Java during 2016

Abstract

In this manuscript, we investigated the characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in southern Java and the effect of local (air-sea heat flux) and remote forcing (El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole/IOD) on the formation of MHWs. We utilized remote sensing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature V2.1 dataset and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis, covering the period 01 January 1982 to 31 December 2021. The datasets were processed by statistical analysis using MATLAB. We found that the most prolonged durations and the highest cumulative intensities of MHWs in southern Java were recorded during 2016, spanning approximately 255 days and 419.28 °C, respectively. During 2016, the combination of El Niño decay and negative IOD led to optimal warm conditions for long-lasting MHWs and hit southern Java throughout the year. Furthermore, this research highlighted a stronger correlation between ENSO and MHWs in southern Java compared to the IOD, with a 5-8 months lag time. We suggest that long-lasting MHW events may have serious implications for social and ecological systems. Therefore, an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of MHWs due to ongoing climate change becomes an urgent matter to predict such extreme events.