Unemployment as fertile ground for electoral support of the radical left: evidence from the european regions in the first two decades of the 21st century

Abstract

ABSTACT: This paper aims to discover whether the rate of unemployment in the first two decades of the 21st century influenced electoral support for the radical left parties (RLPs). The election results for 37 RLPs were analysed at the level of the NUTS 2 regions. The impact of unemployment was examined using four indicators–general, youth, long-term and male unemployment rates. The aim was achieved through a multilevel regression analysis conducted for parliamentary elections between 2002 and 2019. The results suggest that RLPs are more successful in regions with a higher unemployment rate (general, long-term, male) across the years under review. A 1% rise in the long-term unemployment rate led to an increase in support for RLPs of 0.2% to 1.9% in most NUTS 2 regions (179 out of 198). This effect is most pronounced in the regions where the centre-periphery cleavage associated with historically strong leftist tendencies can be observed, particularly in the case of German, Greek, Portuguese and Spanish regions. The main thrust of the paper is in the analysis of electoral support in parliamentary elections at the regional level, which is less represented in the thematic literature compared with the individual or national level.