Awareness as the most effective measure to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria

Abstract

A mathematical model consisting of a system of four nonlinear ordinary differential equations is constructed. Our aim is to study the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria and to show the effectiveness of awareness and the need for relevant authorities to engage themselves more in enlightening people on the significance of the available control measures in mitigating the spread of the disease. Two equilibrium solutions; Disease free equilibrium and Endemic equilibrium solutions were calculated and their global stability analysis was carried out. Basic reproduction ratio (RR0 ) was also obtained, in this research RR0 = 3.0784. Data obtained for Nigeria is used to conduct numerical simulations in order to support the analytic result and to show the significance of awareness in controlling the disease spread. From the simulation result, it was shown that to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria there is need for serious awareness programs to enlighten people on the available control measures; social distancing, self-isolation, use of personal protective equipment (such as face mask, hand globes, overall gown, etc.), regular hand washing using soap or sanitizer, avoiding having contact with person showing the symptoms and reporting any suspected case.