Understanding the Potential of Livestock Market with Special Reference to the Export of Swine Meat from India: A Study of Time-series Analysis using ARIMA-based Forecasting Method

Abstract

Background: The increasing demand of swine meat, both for local consumption and for export, can be taken as an opportunity for increased revenue and foreign exchange. Since north east India is considered as the hub of pork market in India, an attempt is made to study the current trend of export of swine meat from India and forecasting the same for the next decade. Methods: Six different ARIMA models were fitted to the time- series data pertaining to the period 2003 to 2019 for the export of annual swine meat (fresh, chilled or frozen). The forecasting of future annual meat export value in leading 10 years is done using the best model with higher accuracy. Result: The most fitted model (1,0,1) out of other models (1,1,0), (2,0,2), (1, 2, 1), (1,1,1) and (1,1,2) suggests the positive trend of annual swine meat export from India. It is anticipated to grow at 6.54 units from 2020 to 2029 as compared to 1.45 units from the last decade (2010-2019). The commercialisation of piggery sector can be a vital source for sustainable livelihood, for doubling the farmer’s income and for an enterprise building.