Amostragem seqüencial de Alabama argillacea (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) em algodoeiro

Abstract

An appropriated management of the cotton leafworm on cotton crop demands a sampling plan that quantifies the population density of the pest in an accurate and fast form. The objective of this research was to determine the plan of sequential sampling of Alabama argillacea (Hübner) on cotton crop, CNPA ITA-90 cultivar. During the 1998/99 growing season a sampling system was applied in three experimental areas located at the Fazenda Itamarati Sul S/A in the region of Ponta Porã, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Each area measured 1 ha and was composed of 100 plots with 100 m2. The number of small, medium and large larvae was counted on five plants per plot, in a weekly basis. After defined that all stages of cotton leafworm larvae were distributed according to the contagious model, fitting Negative Binomial Distribution during the whole period of infestation, a sequential sampling plan was provided, according to the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT). A threshold level of two larvae per plant was assumed to trigger the sampling plan. After the data were analyzed two decision lines were indicated: the superior one, which represents the condition that the adoption of some control method is recommended, and was defined as S1= 4.8784+1.4227n; and the inferior one, representing the situation where the adoption of some control method is not recommended, defined as S0= -4.8784+1.4227n. The sequential sampling plan indicated the expected maximum number of 16 samples to determine whether or not the pest control is necessary.