Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Engine using Autoregressive Model

Abstract

Gas turbine (GT) engines are known for their high availability and reliability and are extensively used for power generation, marine and aero-applications. Maintenance of such complex machines should be done proactively to reduce cost and sustain high availability of the GT. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of autoregressive (AR) models to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of a GT engine. The Turbofan Engine data from NASA benchmark data repository is used as case study. The parametric investigation is performed to check on any effect of changing model parameter on modelling accuracy. Results shows that a single sensory data cannot accurately predict RUL of GT and further research need to be carried out by incorporating multi-sensory data. Furthermore, the predictions made using AR model seems to give highly pessimistic values for RUL of GT.