Case Fatality Rate estimation of COVID-19 for European Countries: Turkey’s Current Scenario Amidst a Global Pandemic; Comparison of Outbreaks with European Countries

Abstract

Objectives: SARS-CoV-2, which belongs to the Coronaviridae family of RNA viruses, caused an epidemic in China, lead-ing to the pandemic of COVID-19. Various international and national authorities around the world have been attempting to halt the spread of the deadly virus by providing awareness of the disease including daily confirmed cases and deaths related to the pandemic. At this early stage of the outbreak, epidemiological patterns are required for healthcare officials and public, to understand the ongoing situation. The case fatality rate is one of the key parameters for the epidemiology of this type of epidemic. In this study, we aimed to compute the CFR for European countries and Turkey until 31st March 2020. Methods: We used linear regression analysis on the cumulative number of cases and deaths to generate a slope to estimate CFR values of COVID-19 in selected countries. We compared the calculated CFR values of Turkey until 31st March (15 days since first COVID-19 death) with similar first fifteen days’ data since the report of first death from Italy, Spain, the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, the Netherlands and Portugal. We then calculated CFR values for these countries from their cumulative confirmed cases and cumulative deaths up to March 31st. Results: Based on This data-driven analysis showed that CFR for Turkey was 1.85 (95% CI: 1.513-2.181) with an R2 value of 0.92 which was comparable to fa ifteen day analysis of France as 1.979 (95% CI: 1.798-2.159) and an R2 value of 0.98. However, CFRs for selected countries increased in subsequent analysis when the threshold of fifteen days was released until March 31, 2020. However, the CFR estimates are time-dependent and show a linear trend in the initial stages of the outbreak. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 in Turkey at initial stages of the outbreak was similar to France. However, SARS-CoV-2 seemed to have spread quicker in Turkey since the report of first death, as compared to other countries based on the number of confirmed cases. This study was aimed at recording an update on the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 for Turkey in comparison to European countries during a global pandemic.