The performance of a medium-range forecast model in winter - impact of physical parameterizations.

Abstract

We present the results of a series of forecasts on 7 weather situations from February 1976 using 2 models which differ only in their physical parameterizations. One set of parameterizations was developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lboratory (GEDL) some years ago, the other more recently at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF). When measured by the standard objective methods, the range of predictability was 5-6 days.-from Authors