Tsunami waveform forecasting at cooling water intakes of nuclear reactors with deep learning model

Abstract

The Fukushima nuclear disaster highlights the importance of accurate and fast predictions of tsunami hazard to critical coastal infrastructure to devise mitigation strategies in both long-term and real-time events. Recently, deep learning models allowed us to make accurate and rapid forecasts on high dimensional, non-linear, and non-stationary time series data such as that associated with tsunami waveforms. Thus, this study uses a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) model to predict waveforms at cooling water intakes of nuclear power plant at Uljin in South Korea. The site is particularly vulnerable to tsunamis originating from the west coast of Japan. Data for the CNN model are generated by numerical simulation of 1107 cases of tsunami propagation initiating from fault locations. The time series data for waveforms were predicted at 13 virtual gauges located in the nearshore region of the study area, 10 of which were classified as observation points and 3 gauges situated at the cooling water intakes were categorized as target locations. The performance assessment of the model's forecasts showed excellent results with rapid predictions. The study highlights two main points: (i) deep learning models can be based on sparse waveform in situ data (such as that recorded by deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis or any locally operating monitoring stations for ocean waves) or numerically simulated data at only a few points along the dominant wave propagation direction, and (ii) deep learning models are fully capable of accurate and fast predictions of complex geo-hazards that prompt rapid emergency response to coordinate mitigation efforts.