Niche conservatism and disjunct populations

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Painted Buntings (Passerina ciris) breed in a variety of habitat s across the southern United States; however, a 500-km gap divides the species into eastern and western populations with dramatically different molting schedules. By contrast, the closely related Indigo Bunting (P. cyanea) is syntopic with Painted Buntings, but its range includes the 500-km gap. To date, no well-supported hypothesis explains the gap in the range of Painted Buntings. We used MaxEnt to describe ecological niches of both species and performed comparative analyses of model results to evaluate niche similarity between the two Painted Bunting breeding populations and the range gap. All present-day niche models for both species predicted a single contiguous breeding range, which suggests that the gap in the Painted Bunting range is not bioclimatic in origin. Comparative analyses of the three different environments suggest little bioclimatic divergence. Distribution models during the Last Glacial Maximum suggest that Paint...