The response of annual minimum temperature on the eastern central Tibetan Plateau to large volcanic eruptions over the period 1380-2014 CE

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on global temperature; their consequences are of particular interest in regions that are especially sensitive to climate change, like the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we develop a temperature-sensitive tree-ring-width standard chronology covering the period 1348-2014 CE using Qilian juniper ( Sabina przewalskii (Kom.)) samples collected from the Animaqin Mountains on the Tibetan Plateau. We reconstruct the annual (prior August to current July) mean minimum temperature ( T min) since 1380 CE and show that our reconstruction explains 58 % of the variance during the 1960-2014 calibration period. Our results demonstrate that in 77.8 % of cases in which a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 5 or greater occurs, temperature decreases in the year of or the year following the eruption. The results of the superposed epoch analysis also indicate that there is a high probability that the T min decreases for 2 years after a large volcanic eruption, especially when such eruptions occur in the Northern Hemisphere..