Impact of logistics development level on international trade in China: A provincial analysis

Abstract

Transport infrastructure and logistics are gradually becoming important factors affecting global trade. At the same time, with the international logistics corridor along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) going deep into construction, China is emerging as a unique case to study how logistics affects international trade. Therefore, based on the evaluation index system of logistics development level of China’s provinces by using the entropy method, this paper systematically ana-lyzed the impact of logistics development level on bilateral trade from 31 China’s provinces to 65 countries along the BRI by using the improved gravity model with data for the period 2008–2018. Empirical results show: (1) Logistics development level had significantly promoted international trade development. (2) Compared with partner countries, China’s provincial logistics development level presented a greater impact on bilateral trade. (3) Influence of logistics development level was manifested in different periods, different international and regions, especially, logistics development level coefficient of the western region was negative, while that in eastern region was positive. In view of the above research results, we argue that strengthening domestic and international logistics construction is not only conductive to the sustainable development of China’s future trade, but also help to realize the coordinated development between China’s eastern, central and western regions.