Deep learning predicts cardiovascular disease risks from lung cancer screening low dose computed tomography

Abstract

Cancer patients have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality than the general population. Low dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer screening offers an opportunity for simultaneous CVD risk estimation in at-risk patients. Our deep learning CVD risk prediction model, trained with 30,286 LDCTs from the National Lung Cancer Screening Trial, achieves an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.871 on a separate test set of 2,085 subjects and identifies patients with high CVD mortality risks (AUC of 0.768). We validate our model against ECG-gated cardiac CT based markers, including coronary artery calcification (CAC) score, CAD-RADS score, and MESA 10-year risk score from an independent dataset of 335 subjects. Our work shows that, in high-risk patients, deep learning can convert LDCT for lung cancer screening into a dual-screening quantitative tool for CVD risk estimation.