EARTHQUAKE FREQUENCY DATA MODELING IN MENTAWAI USING FUZZY TIME SERIES LEE AND FUZZY TIME SERIES TSAUR

Abstract

The Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) was first studied by Song and Chissom based on the theory of fuzzy sets and the concept of linguistic variables and their applications discovered by Zadeh. FTS has several models, namely FTS Lee, FTS Tsaur, and so on. In this study, we will model earthquake frequency data in Mentawai using FTS Lee and FTS Tsaur. The seismicity data used in this study is earthquake frequency data in the Mentawai which are calculated from 1960 to 2022. Additionally, the seismicity data source is taken from the U.S. Geological Survey catalog. Based on MAPE and MSE, the results obtained on the FTS Lee and FTS Tsaur models are MAPE values of 37,511% and 27,051%. And the MSE values obtained were 27,073 and 11,671. Thus, the best model used in modeling data on the frequency of earthquake occurrences in the Mentawai Islands is the FTS Tsaur model.