The Southern Oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India.

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Darwin pressure anomalies are examined for the 81-year period 1901-81. It is found that the tendency of the Darwin pressure anomaly before the monsoon season is a good indicator of the monsoon rainfall anomaly. During the 81-year period, there were only two instances when a negative tendency of winter to spring Darwin pressure anomaly was followed by a monsoon rainfall anomaly of less than minus one standard deviation; and only three instances when a positive tendency was followed by a rainfall anomaly of more than one standard deviation. -from Authors