The Burden of Mortality Attributable to Diabetes

Abstract

OBJECTIVE—To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death.RESULTS—The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2–3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35–64 years old, 6–27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes.CONCLUSIONS—These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.