Development and Validation of an Intracranial Hemorrhage Risk Score in Older Adults with Atrial Fibrillation Treated with Oral Anticoagulant

Abstract

Background: High risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) is a leading reason for withholding anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to develop a claims-based ICH risk prediction model in older adults with AF initiating oral anticoagulation (OAC). Methods: We used US Medicare claims data to identify new users of OAC aged ≥65 years with AF in 2010–2017. We used regularized Cox regression to select predictors of ICH. We compared our AF ICH risk score with the HAS-BLED bleed risk and Homer fall risk scores by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and assessed net reclassification improvement (NRI) when predicting 1-year risk of ICH. Results: Our study cohort comprised 840,020 patients (mean [SD] age 77.5 [7.4] years and female 52.2%) split geographically into training (3963 ICH events [0.6%] in 629,804 patients) and validation (1397 ICH events [0.7%] in 210,216 patients) sets. Our AF ICH risk score, including 50 predictors, had superior AUCs of 0.653 and 0.650 in the training and validation sets than the HAS-BLED score of 0.580 and 0.567 (p<0.001) and the Homer score of 0.624 and 0.623 (p<0.001). In the validation set, our AF ICH risk score reclassified 57.8%, 42.5%, and 43.9% of low, intermediate, and high-risk patients, respectively, by HAS-BLED score (NRI: 15.3%, p<0.001). Similarly, it reclassified 0.0, 44.1, and 19.4% of low, intermediate, and high-risk patients, respectively, by the Homer score (NRI: 21.9%, p<0.001). Conclusion: Our novel claims-based ICH risk prediction model outperformed the standard HAS-BLED score and can inform OAC prescribing decisions.