A fine balance: The geopolitics of the global energy transition in MENA

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is a critical one in the global energy transition, because of its core role in producing, using and exporting oil and natural gas. As international policies on climate change become more stringent, and new energy systems gain in competitiveness, its economic and political systems face the twin challenge of falling resource rents, and the global geopolitical and geoeconomic shift towards Asia. Regional countries are to different degrees implementing policies to retool their domestic hydrocarbon industries, introduce renewables and other new energy technologies, realign towards new markets and diversify their economies. Regional unrest and conflict, climate change, and geopolitical competition between the US, Russia, China and other local and international powers complicate the diplomacy and energy security challenges of the MENA energy transition.