French election theory: Why sarkozy lost

Abstract

We review theories of French elections, drawing on a recent general theory developed in our analysis of presidential elections (1988-2007). We offer an explanation for why President Sarkozy was not re-elected in 2012. Two key theoretical variables were involved: one long term-ideological identification-and one short term-economic evaluation. The effect of these variables changed greatly from 2007 to 2012, and together largely account for his loss of almost five percentage-points in second-round vote share. In 2007, he ran as an 'outsider' who galvanised the base of his traditional right party (the UMP), promising to solve the economic problems the country faced. In contrast, in 2012, he ran as an incumbent with a failed record. Thus, he experienced substantial defection from the Gaullist right, as well as more global dissatisfaction with his poor economic leadership, costing him his presidential re-election bid. © 2013 The Author.