Understanding Unrest: Conspiracy Belief and Violent Radicalization Patterns in Young People During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Netherlands

Abstract

Conspiracy theories threaten Western societies’ cohesion and democracy. Yet, little is known about who might be vulnerable to conspiracy-motivated violent radicalization, which is essential for effective prevention. The first aim of this study was to identify profiles of cognitive and behavioral violent radicalization tendencies and COVID-19 conspiracy exposure and belief among a sample of Dutch youth (N = 593, 16 to 26-years-old) drawn during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second aim was to describe the identified profiles based on risk factor presence. Latent-profile analyses identified four profiles. Most individuals belonged to the general population profile (64%) characterized by low levels of cognitive and behavioral violent radicalization, as well as low levels of COVID-19 conspiracy exposure and belief. The experimenters (20%), violent-risk (8%), and conspiracist (7%) profiles displayed higher levels of these constructs. Results revealed that micro- and meso-level risk factors were most pronounced in the violent-risk profile, which exhibited the highest levels of behavioral violent radicalization. For people in the conspiracist profile with higher levels of COVID-19 conspiracy belief, micro-level risk factors, specifically police illegitimacy and perceived personal discrimination were important, demonstrating the importance of fairness and justice during political decision-making. Overall, integrating evidence-based strategies for anti-crime interventions into anti-radicalization efforts may help curb violently radical behavior (Jugl et al., Monatsschrift Fur Kriminologie Und Strafrechtsreform, 1–16. 2021a).