The Impact of Extreme Precipitation on the Vulnerability of a Country

Abstract

Recently, the impact of climate change on national instability is getting more and more attention. However, there is no explanation to how climate affects country's fragility. Based on some data and researches, we get eight indices provided by The World Bank and two climate indices, temperature difference and extreme precipitation. Researches show that temperature difference affects the fragility directly and extreme precipitation causes indirect influence. We choose South Sudan as the study target. In order to find out how climate change increases this state's fragility, multiple linear regression analysis is applied to get the relationship between extreme precipitation and three indices. After that, we choose Bangladesh, which is not in the top ten most fragile states to analyse. By calculating the weights of the ten indices above, the two indices, economy and refugees &IDPs (Internally-Displaced Persons), are more significant. Therefore, we conclude that climate change increases fragility by affecting rainfall in Bangladesh. The tipping point is defined as the year when rainfall exceeds 2100 mm and we adopt the GM (1,1) model based on gray prediction theory to get the point. Prediction shows that the next two tipping points of Bangladesh are 2022 and 2027.